A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
