Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
